Where Will Libya Be In 5 Years?
Larissa Lieberson
During this exploratory essay, I will predict where Libya will be in 5 years by referring back to past revolutions in France and Russia. The Libyan revolution began last year causing city-wide riots in Benghazi due to the unfair ruling of their prior leader, Muammar Gaddafi. Over 100 years ago, a similar revolution occurred in France caused by the rise in food prices and poor conditions that most of the population was living under. Also, in Russia, the people were upset with their lack of freedom and rights, and the working class finally decided to stand up and do something about it. By examining specific events from the past that are similar to those of Libya, predicting the future will become easier.
The one key thing that the people of the French and Libyan Revolutions wanted: to overthrow their leader. As Merriam Webster said, the definition of ‘overthrow’ is, “to cause the downfall of; bring down; defeat (Merriam NA). In both examples, they did so in a violent fashion. On the 21st of January 1793, King Louis XVI was sentenced to death by method of the newly discovered, guillotine. Similarly, on the 20th of October 2011, Muammar Gaddafi was captured and killed by members of the National Liberation Army. After Louis died, the National Convention took office in France, just as the National Transition Council is currently in power in Libya. However, these two leaders had somewhat opposite methods of ruling their countries. Louis XVI was eventually killed due to his lack of control and ability to change his nation. His reputation was that of a coward, whereas Gaddafi was almost too powerful and demanding. Although after the death of France’s king, Napoleon Bonaparte came to power as a somewhat ‘fairly elected leader,’ after his rule ended, they eventually returned to their own ways under the instruction of King Louis XVIII. If Libya ends up with an elected leader, they must be careful not to make the same mistake twice, as the French did many years ago.
When life for the average Libyan civilian became too expensive, the people grew angry just as they did in France years ago. In Libya, much of their wealth comes from oil production. In fact, last year they produced 1.789 million bbl/day of it (CIA NA). Just imagine how much income that brought in for their country. However, this money was only spread amongst an elite number of the population in order for them to have a higher GDP. Furthermore, as we all know, the French love their bread, so when it was too expensive for the average citizen, a revolution began known as the March on Versaille. Since the government began to regulate how much flour each baker was allowed to use each day, the prices began to rise extremely quickly, and there was not enough food for all of the people. Also, as of last year, 20.74% of Libyans were unemployed, which is terribly high if you compare it to the US last year with only 9.1% unemployed even in the recession (CIA NA). So, why is their unemployment rate so high if they have so much money from oil flowing through their country? Years ago, the consequences of the Women’s March on Versaille happened to be much to the public’s favor. As many of them were armed, the king finally gave into their demands by making sure that all of the bread would be delivered to the people in Paris. When people are dependent on something, they cannot focus without it such as oil and wheat. The bad harvesting season in France deprived their people of food just like Libya’s bad distribution of oil is limiting their people of wealth. Eventually, the middle class in Libya will reach their breaking point, and revolt even more if their economy doesn’t light up soon.
Similarly to the murder of Louis XVI, the death of Nicholas II was also exceptionally comparable to that of Muammar Gaddafi. In Libya, after the nation caused major uproar, the country developed a no-fly zone. Then, when rebel forces ultimately captured the city of Tripoli, the National Transitional Council finally replaced the prior government. In comparison, the citywide strike commonly referred to as the March Revolution of 1917, were a series of revolts caused by shortages in food and fuel. “This ignited a full-blown uprising within Russia, and forced Czar Nicholas II to abdicate the throne (Rogard NA).” Afterwards, Lenin was deemed powerful in the new czar-less Russia. The outcome to both of these episodes was that their people killed Gaddafi and Nicholas II. Now that Libya is purged of the person who caused nearly all of their problems, they can move on and improve the nation by abolishing the unfair laws that Gaddafi had established.
The unjust rules that were practiced during the Libyan and Russian revolutions made the people even more upset, which lead to more revolts. A recent example of violent rebellions occurred in Benghazi last year, which was a fight between pro and anti Gaddafi forces. The anti-Gaddafi services protested outside the main courthouse and sought more rights for themselves and for the militia. Similarly, over 100 years ago, lower class workers petitioned outside of Czar Nicholas II’s palace for more personal freedoms. This event was called Bloody Sunday. Instead of just settling these conflicts with their people, both Gaddafi and the Czar decided to keep fighting back instead. The Czar did a pretty good job of it too, as he killed 94 of his own civilians along the way. The only reason why these leaders could have done this would be to maintain power, as they didn’t want to look weak in front of their people. What these rulers didn’t realize, was that their people had little respect for them. As Dr. Bill Gould said in the Wall Street Journal, “Real power isn’t inherited, doesn’t come with title or position, cannot be demanded or expected. Real power comes from deep within a person and expands outwards to include people within one’s sphere of influence (National NA). This shows how violence isn’t always the best method to achieve your goals, as these leaders were both killed in the end.
The Libyan Revolution has been about a power struggle. The frustration of never being equal, and having to live under strict rules and censorship that Gaddafi had created. This paper explored the events in this modern day revolution to ones closely tied in the Russian and French Revolutions, in order to try and understand where Libya will be in five years. To try and determine this, I examined the measures in the death of Louis XVI, the March on Versaille, Bloody Sunday and the March Revolution. In five years, Libya will have a newly elected leader that will run a more democratic government where their national revenue is distributed equally amongst the people.
The one key thing that the people of the French and Libyan Revolutions wanted: to overthrow their leader. As Merriam Webster said, the definition of ‘overthrow’ is, “to cause the downfall of; bring down; defeat (Merriam NA). In both examples, they did so in a violent fashion. On the 21st of January 1793, King Louis XVI was sentenced to death by method of the newly discovered, guillotine. Similarly, on the 20th of October 2011, Muammar Gaddafi was captured and killed by members of the National Liberation Army. After Louis died, the National Convention took office in France, just as the National Transition Council is currently in power in Libya. However, these two leaders had somewhat opposite methods of ruling their countries. Louis XVI was eventually killed due to his lack of control and ability to change his nation. His reputation was that of a coward, whereas Gaddafi was almost too powerful and demanding. Although after the death of France’s king, Napoleon Bonaparte came to power as a somewhat ‘fairly elected leader,’ after his rule ended, they eventually returned to their own ways under the instruction of King Louis XVIII. If Libya ends up with an elected leader, they must be careful not to make the same mistake twice, as the French did many years ago.
When life for the average Libyan civilian became too expensive, the people grew angry just as they did in France years ago. In Libya, much of their wealth comes from oil production. In fact, last year they produced 1.789 million bbl/day of it (CIA NA). Just imagine how much income that brought in for their country. However, this money was only spread amongst an elite number of the population in order for them to have a higher GDP. Furthermore, as we all know, the French love their bread, so when it was too expensive for the average citizen, a revolution began known as the March on Versaille. Since the government began to regulate how much flour each baker was allowed to use each day, the prices began to rise extremely quickly, and there was not enough food for all of the people. Also, as of last year, 20.74% of Libyans were unemployed, which is terribly high if you compare it to the US last year with only 9.1% unemployed even in the recession (CIA NA). So, why is their unemployment rate so high if they have so much money from oil flowing through their country? Years ago, the consequences of the Women’s March on Versaille happened to be much to the public’s favor. As many of them were armed, the king finally gave into their demands by making sure that all of the bread would be delivered to the people in Paris. When people are dependent on something, they cannot focus without it such as oil and wheat. The bad harvesting season in France deprived their people of food just like Libya’s bad distribution of oil is limiting their people of wealth. Eventually, the middle class in Libya will reach their breaking point, and revolt even more if their economy doesn’t light up soon.
Similarly to the murder of Louis XVI, the death of Nicholas II was also exceptionally comparable to that of Muammar Gaddafi. In Libya, after the nation caused major uproar, the country developed a no-fly zone. Then, when rebel forces ultimately captured the city of Tripoli, the National Transitional Council finally replaced the prior government. In comparison, the citywide strike commonly referred to as the March Revolution of 1917, were a series of revolts caused by shortages in food and fuel. “This ignited a full-blown uprising within Russia, and forced Czar Nicholas II to abdicate the throne (Rogard NA).” Afterwards, Lenin was deemed powerful in the new czar-less Russia. The outcome to both of these episodes was that their people killed Gaddafi and Nicholas II. Now that Libya is purged of the person who caused nearly all of their problems, they can move on and improve the nation by abolishing the unfair laws that Gaddafi had established.
The unjust rules that were practiced during the Libyan and Russian revolutions made the people even more upset, which lead to more revolts. A recent example of violent rebellions occurred in Benghazi last year, which was a fight between pro and anti Gaddafi forces. The anti-Gaddafi services protested outside the main courthouse and sought more rights for themselves and for the militia. Similarly, over 100 years ago, lower class workers petitioned outside of Czar Nicholas II’s palace for more personal freedoms. This event was called Bloody Sunday. Instead of just settling these conflicts with their people, both Gaddafi and the Czar decided to keep fighting back instead. The Czar did a pretty good job of it too, as he killed 94 of his own civilians along the way. The only reason why these leaders could have done this would be to maintain power, as they didn’t want to look weak in front of their people. What these rulers didn’t realize, was that their people had little respect for them. As Dr. Bill Gould said in the Wall Street Journal, “Real power isn’t inherited, doesn’t come with title or position, cannot be demanded or expected. Real power comes from deep within a person and expands outwards to include people within one’s sphere of influence (National NA). This shows how violence isn’t always the best method to achieve your goals, as these leaders were both killed in the end.
The Libyan Revolution has been about a power struggle. The frustration of never being equal, and having to live under strict rules and censorship that Gaddafi had created. This paper explored the events in this modern day revolution to ones closely tied in the Russian and French Revolutions, in order to try and understand where Libya will be in five years. To try and determine this, I examined the measures in the death of Louis XVI, the March on Versaille, Bloody Sunday and the March Revolution. In five years, Libya will have a newly elected leader that will run a more democratic government where their national revenue is distributed equally amongst the people.
A crown of people gather at the court house square in Benghazi last April
Works Cited
Cia.gov. N.p., n.d. Web. 26 Apr. 2012.
Libyaward1.weebly.com. N.p., n.d. Web. 26 Apr. 2012.
Merriam-Webster.com. N.p., n.d. Web. 26 Apr. 2012.
Modern World History. N.p.: n.p., n.d. Print.
Nationalmultimedia.com. N.p., n.d. Web. 26 Apr. 2012.
Rogardrevolutions.weebly.com. N.p., n.d. Web. 26 Apr. 2012.
Wiki page. Libyan Civil War. N.p., n.d. Web. 26 Apr. 2012.
Libyaward1.weebly.com. N.p., n.d. Web. 26 Apr. 2012.
Merriam-Webster.com. N.p., n.d. Web. 26 Apr. 2012.
Modern World History. N.p.: n.p., n.d. Print.
Nationalmultimedia.com. N.p., n.d. Web. 26 Apr. 2012.
Rogardrevolutions.weebly.com. N.p., n.d. Web. 26 Apr. 2012.
Wiki page. Libyan Civil War. N.p., n.d. Web. 26 Apr. 2012.